CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-10-04T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-04T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21898/-1
CME Note: Visible in the S of SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with filament eruption centered near S30E05, visible in SDO AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-10-04T13:25Z. LASSOS team discussed solar wind signatures on 2022-10-06 and 2022-10-07 and determined that there was no clear CME arrival signature on these dates.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-06T22:43Z
Prediction Method: SPM
Prediction Method Note:

SPM Model Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2022-10-04 14:24:00
Initial Shock Speed:  797 km/s
Background Solar Wind Speed: 450 km/s
Duration Time: 2 hrs

Output Results: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-10-06 22:43:18

Lead Time: 19.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2022-10-06T03:33Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement